2010 INSIDE THE FLY BY NIGHT:
NL EAST
As I mentioned earlier, I saved the best division for last. According to my power rankings four out of the top six FBN teams call the NL East home. It should be a great competitive battle among those four teams to determine which ones move on.
Naturally, Norwich is not among the playoff contenders. Don is still working on rebuilding the team. He added a ton of young arms in the draft including Cahill, Anderson, Davis, Bard, Holland and Zimmerman. Add them to Kershaw and Cueto and you have the making of a good future staff. There is not a lot of present or future value among the position players, but guys like Choo, Escobar, Laporta and Sweeney provide some basis to build around.
Ranked 22nd in the league I expect the Navigators to contend with York Town and Old Indian for the #1 pick in the draft next season. It’s hard to say how long it will take this team to contend….depends on how all the young guys develop….but certainly lot’s of upside to like.
After a nice run to the playoffs last season the Jarheads are in for a more challenging season during 2010. While Piniero has a renaissance season, past ancors Webb, Young and Guthrie were casualties of war. The addition of Bergeson will help make the Jarheads competitive, but they don’t have a fighting chance in this division.
The rate bottom third in the league across the board. Not bad offensively…nice table setters in Span and Young. But no big middle of the order bats and the bottom third of the order is brutal. Catching went from a strength to a black hole in one year. Even though I think Bill is one of the best managers in the league as squeezing every win out of his team, I think about 70 is all he can hope for this year.
The top four teams may end up being interchangeable. A little luck or an inseason trade or two could swing the pendulum. However, even though the power rankings have Wall Street #5 in the league and #3 in this division, I’m betting the Barons get left out in the cold. Monster offensive team led by Jeter, Langoria, Holliday and Adrian Gonzalez ranks #1. The defense is also very good but the pitching is only #13 and it’s all about pitching.
Even though Joe did all he could to upgrade the pitching in the draft, it’s not enough to over-take the #1,3 and 5 ranked pitching staffs. The starting pitching in this division is ridiculous. The Jarheads great offense and solid pen with make them tough. Street has one of the best closer cards in the deck. But the starting pitching isn’t enough. This team could win any where between 85 and 100 games. I’m betting on the under.
Halladay, Cain and Josh Johnson don’t get you any better than 3rd? That’s crazy, right. Unfortunately, the rest of the rotation and the pen aren’t likely to be enough. I wonder if Rob, might pitch the big three in a four man rotation. That would help mask the #4 and 5 spots in the rotation, but might dip too much into a pen that’s not very deep.
Offensively a very nice 1-6. Pujols is a monster of course, and the pickup of Jones in the draft provides some nice protection. Morgan and Victorino make for nice table setters and Cano had a nice year. Should win between 90 and 100 games. I think you could potentially have four teams win 90 games in this division, but more than likely one of them will end up in the 80’s. They should whoop up on the West during interdivisional play.
Burlington rates #3 in the league. Excellent pitching with Vazquez anchoring a very good 1-5 rotation. How many teams would be sitting a guy like Shields most of the year? The pen is very deep. So stud closer like Street, but lost of very good cards. It’ll be tough to score on them late in games. Excellent defensive team with 2’s all over the place and a 1 in CF.
Offensively not great, but ok. Hanley Ramirez, Victor Martinez and Ethier make a good but not great 3-4-5 combo. A little weak else where in the infield. It was tough to rate this team above Allyn St, but the pitching depth is tough to ignore. Allyn Street having to use a guy like Russ Ortiz may cost them a few pivotal games.
Defending champs Milford are your 2010 preseason #1 ranked team. WTF! How did we let Glen do this again? Are we all morons? If it’s all about starting pitching like they say…we best all be afraid. With Lincecum, Verlander, Sabathia, Garza and Gallardo making this the best pitching team in the league and guys like Chamberlain, Hughes, Bucholz and Bailey sitting in the wings in case any of current studs falter….all indications point to another dynasty for Southern Connecticut’s Evil Empire. I enjoy talking to Glen, so hopefully he doesn’t get bored of kicking our collective ass and leave again. Maybe, next off-season some of you baseball purest types can figure out some way of screwing Glen out of the players. How, about the defending champ only get to keep two players and the rest go to free agency?
Anyhow, not that it matters but the Evil Empire has a good offense as well and also loaded with youth. Uptons, Beckham, Andrus, McCutchen supplement guys like Manny and Youkilis. They don’t have a good 2Bman this year. Yeehaa! And the pen is just good, not great…but who cares. Don’t need much of a pen with that rotation. Interestingly, it’s not a slam-dunk that this team makes the playoffs. Some bad luck and you never know given the stiff competition. However, assuming they make the playoffs and have a rotation of Lincecum, Verlander and Sabathia….I’d say they are favorites to repeat. I have to begrudgingly say once again… I (we) am not worthy!!
That’s it. Hope you enjoyed my analysis and rantings….and I hope everyone has a fun season. Could the World Series be a rematch of 2009? We’ll see.
....click here to see the projected NLE standings and team details
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AL WEST
My favorite division since my favorite team lives there. Oh, I wish I had this year’s team last year, when the AL West was arguable the worst division of all time. Alas, I will have to win against some real competition…. hate it when that happens!
This year’s group is not tremendous, but is much improved and does sport a few teams that could do some serious damage in the playoffs. While there are three contenders in the division there are also the 23rd and 24th ranked pitching staff…. so lots of fun to be had by the contenders, who coincidentally all have strong offensive squads…there will be some bludgeonings along the way.
Merk is a man I can look up to with admiration. Nooo, has nothing to do with him being a good guy that everyone respects! Pleeeease…no. I love the way he guts his team mercilessly when he’s in “go for it” mode. Makes my heart warm. Every time he does it I look at his team and say to myself “self, them Admirals are gonna suck for the next decade”. But then a year or two later he’s back in contention. You gotta like that. Well, after two years in the playoffs including a trip to the championship series, the Admirals are back in the gutted pathetic mode. Merk has out done himself this time. This team is aweful. The only team in the league where the pitchers cards rate higher in combined on-base, total base and ball park HRs than the hitters cards do. Can you say Steven Strasberg?
Let’s see….humm, can’t hit lefties, can’t hit rightes…no pitching…they do rate in the top 20 in fielding. There are a few decent young players like Steven Drew and Kurt Suzuki to build around, but Merk will have to work his magic again if he’s going to get back to the playoffs anytime soon.
Old Indian, the new kid on the block is in your typical new team rebuild mode. The team did come with (or Sean traded for) lots of AB’s with the likes of Schumaker, OCabrera, Polanco, Butler, Kennedy, McClouth, etc. Very little pitching was inherited. Sean will have his work cut out for him and will take a beating this season. Lucky for him he gets to play Yorktown 18 times so there will be at least a few opportunities to taste the sweet nectar of victory. I liked the selections of Rasmus, Saunders and Blanks in the draft…. definitely the makings of a nice future outfield. Normally I would question the wisdom of taking a relief pitcher like Bailey high in the first round when you are not a contending team…but since I don’t want to piss Sean off and have him use Bailey’s entire 91 innings against the Hogs…I will say AWESOME AWESOME PICK!
So there are definitely some building blocks in place. Good luck with the team Sean.
Good news for Hotlanta, his team is about the same as his playoff team of 2009. Bad news for Hotlanta, 80 wins ain’t gonna do it this year. In fact 80 wins will be tough to come by since the division is a lot better. I’d say about 75 wins is more likely.
Offensively Fielder had a monster year, and Lee, Cuddyer and Coughlan are solid, but certainly not a scary squad and not enough to make up for the mediocre pitching. I’m not sure what role Coughlan will play. Both Lee and Coughlan are 5’s in LF so I think you have to DH one of them and sit the other. I suppose you could play Coughlan at 2B with his 4e26, but then you lose Sanchez’s nice defense. So Coughlan seems like a good future pick but don’t think he’ll help much this year.
The rotation is full of big inning #3 starters like Lannan, Blackburn, Maholm and Cook. I suppose you could argue a couple of them are low end #2 starters, but bottom line is they won’t get it done against the likes of FL, CD and HS. The bullpen is weak. Number 8 defense (assuming Lee or Coughlan sits) so that’s not too shabby.
Florida is much improved over last season. They will rake vs RHP. Aside from Rollins and whatever smuck catches, the rest of the lineup is scary. Lind, Kubel, Reynolds, Hunter, Helton and Uggla…yikes! Not so good if you have a LH starter who is tough on lefties as you neutralize Lind and Kubel. Still lots of power both way. This team will score a lot of runs.
Nice how Porcello fell to Mike in the draft…I think a steal at 9. He joins Jiminez and Garland atop an ok rotation….not as good as California or Hart St. Romero should get pounded and could be “the difference”. In the pen Wurtz and Hoffman are monsters…. do not trail after six or you’re toast. The rest of the pen is pretty weak so if you can get the starters out early you’re living large. I was all proud of myself for trading Livan to Mike for a #4….but Mike then traded him for a better #4. Touché!
California is much improved. Unlike Florida who had some guys have breakout seasons, the Dreamers went more the Hog route of pillage and burn and come back strong the next season. Historically the Hogs and Dreamers have not done that at the same time so this will be a special season with excellent Hog and Dreamer teams battling it out…not to mention a Florida team that can’t be ignored.
Breakout sluggers Zobrist and Morales will anchor the middle of a very tough lineup. Lowell and Kinsler dropped off some vs RHP, but all and all still a very good lineup. The will crush lefties with the likes of Shoppach, Raburn and Kinsler putting up monster numbers against southpaws.
Solid rotation. No stud #1 but no bums either. Mixing and matching low inning guys like Freddy Garcia, Pedro and Bedard should be a challenge but will create some favorable match-ups. After Feliz’s 34 inning shut down closer card the pen is not bad, but definitely a weakness along with a mediocre defense. Still a very good team and I think better than the #9 power rankings would indicate.
Hart Street is much improved. See a trend here? Of course, it’s not too hard to improve on last year’s 39 wins. Twice before the Hogs have followed 100 win seasons with sub 50 win seasons and then followed that with 100 win seasons. The Hogs will try to pull that off for a third time in 2010. It’ll be a challenge though since California and Florida are so good.
This year’s retooled version of the Hogs includes some uncharacteristic youth with the likes of Kemp, Escabar, Y Molina, Floyd and Jackson. Offensively the team should score a lot of runs with high on base, but could frustrate a little with the lack of a true RBI monster in the middle of the lineup vs RHP. However, no easy outs up and down the lineup.
The pitching is very solid…Good but unspectacular starting five and deep versatile pen. No stud #1 starter though Wolf and Floyd are 1A type guys and no stud closer though O’Day (thanks to a Strat over-sight) is very good….the lack of any significant pitching weakness should play out ok over 162 games. Hart Street ranks only 18th defensively so that could cause them some problems as well.
Even though the Hogs rank #4 league wide and California #9 it should be noted there is a very fine line between #3 though #9. There is a small drop off from California to Florida. I was going to project California ahead of Hart St, which I think, may very well happen, but that would seem lame based on the power rankings. In any case it should be a tough battle among the three teams and I would expect the extra wild card to come out of this division.
Last but not least…. next up the NL East.
....click here to see the projected ALW standings and team details
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NL WEST
What does it mean when you have a division that goes from last season being one of the strongest 1-5 in recent memory and to being mediocre 1-6 this season? Well, aside from meaning it’s better to be the team that was #6 last year, I’d go with it means there were some injuries, disappointing player performance and the old “went for it last year” hangover. I wanted to say incompetence, but as much as I like to ruffle feathers occasionally I can’t really see that being the case here….
I was going to take the high road here and not hammer Roland…. but what fun is that? I’ll go ahead and hammer Roland….and say Glen made me do it!
Like I said, this division was loaded last season, but will really fallen off significantly this upcoming season. However, it will be just as competitive…. just instead of hammering each other they will be tormenting each other with thoughts of “why can’t I beat that crappy team…. oh if only I had my team from last year I’d be kicking some ass!”.
It’s a tough division to pick. I think any of the six teams willing to compromise the future could either solidify their position atop the division or move up to the top. You’ll see that unlike the AL East that I did last, I am not predicting the order in line with league power ratings.
For example, New England rates fourth best in the division but I am ranking them sixth. Why? I dunno know…. But let’s pretend there is a rhyme or reason behind my madness… The primary reason NE ranks as high as it does in the rankings is because the team has three solid starters in Rodriguez, Happ and Rowand-Smith….and one if the best closers in Mo Rivera. The problem I see here is the good starters are LH’s so will naturally get hit harder relative to a RH starter with the same numbers, and the setup staff sucks…. so it won’t matter much of the time that Rivera is waiting to shut the door….gotta get to the door before you can shut it.
In addition the Angels will hit lefties better than righties, which might not be so bad because there are a lot of LH starters in this division. However you still have to hit RH pitching to be successful.
I think the Angels are going in the right direction with some nice core players like Sandoval, Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Folwer but are still a year or two away from being a serious contender.
So why is it that I project Connecticut 5th when the team rates out 6th? Still drinking the Koolaid, but a watered down version. It seems Connecticut, which still holds the best all-time record in the modern era of the FBN, is always competitive…. so it’s hard for me to predict them even as low as 5th.
But I don’t think the numbers lie, and in spite of still having a nice top of the rotation with Lee and Danks, the rest of the pitching staff has gone south. Even Lee is not likely to be the stud he’s built up to be by the MLB network. His card isn’t among the top lefties. However, the real damage can be attributed to poor performances by Rios and “Juan Pierre” Sizemore and crippling injuries to Reyes and Delgado. The team took a hit offensively and defensively relative to last year. I think if they stay pat they could surprise me again, but I just don’t see them contending for the playoffs as currently constituted.
Middlesex is an interesting team. When was the last time a team with a stud tandem like Greinke and Lester wasn’t in line to contend? As good as those two are, and with a decent #3 option in Dempster, I just think the rest of the rotation and the pen doesn’t have enough to contend. Any team that has Livan Hernandez in it’s rotation is automatically eliminated from playoff consideration.
The team is pretty uninspiring offensively as well. Votto had a nice year, but guys like Ellsbury, Dejesus and Roberts didn’t put up good numbers against RHP so I think this team will struggle to score runs against decent pitching. I think if Brian makes a few trades to solidify the bullpen, add a big bat or two and get one more starter they’d be in business. Piece of cake, right?
Klubbers, Klubbers, Klubbers. A FBN institution, the Klub. So close to projecting them as a playoff team this year…..but just can’t do it. Let’s face it…this is a better team than the Chiefs. The Klubber’s strong suit will be a tremendous bullpen. Not household names…even for Strat geeks, but Guzman, Burnett, Walker, Soriano and Thornton all have excellent cards. The starters are not awful, Lilly is close to if not a #1 and Lackey and Hammels are pretty good. However, I’d get the pen in ASAP if I were managing this team. Defense is a bit of an issue with 4’s at 2B and 3B and a 3 in CF. Offensively ok with Berkman, Markakis and Posada. The Ramirez injury hurts some. Callaspo ain’t no A-Ram.
So I’m challenging Roland to prove this statement wrong: excellent GM, bad manager…. and when I say bad, I’m being nice. Playing in the AL and only having the honor of playing the Klub 2 or 3 games a year I’m not really sure what the deal is….but it seems like the Klubbers always win about ten less games that I think they should. Is the explanation: 1) I’m clueless thinking the Klubbers should win more games 2) Roland is somehow cursed (maybe was a bad boy in a previous life) or 3) Roland is the Butch Hopson (anyone who saw the ex slugging 3Bman manage the Sox for a year or two will understand this reference) of the FBN? I’ll start the vote. 1-0 for #3. Glen tells me Roland has a good sense of humor and doesn’t mind having his thingies busted. I’m not sure if that’s true or if Glen is just egging my on….. Look, I’m not a bad person….I just got in with the wrong crowd….what can I say.
The Chiefs are certainly no longer the elite team they’ve been the last few seasons. Age and age related injuries appear to be catching up with them. It seems like an overhaul might be in the near future. However, they still have at least one last “run” left in them. You would think with a top of the rotation of Beckett, Santana and Peavy they’d be good to go, but injuries to Santana and Peavy will limit the big three to 529 innings instead of the usual 650 or so. The slack will be filled in by the likes of Moyer and Looper so quite a dropoff. The pen is very week. Jenks is ok, but gives up bombs and Okajima will be tough on lefties…but after that it gets pretty ugly.
Offensively the Chiefs will still be pretty effective with good power from Cabrera, Drew and Thome and nice on-base by Bartlett and Wright. Not very good defensively aside from SS. This team has the feel of some of those old steroid ridden Chief teams that clobbered gobs of dingers and couldn’t pitch a lick. They will get some decent starting innings out of the big three…. but after that, watch out. Bud has been very effective the past few years tweaking the team in-season…, which is why he started drafting at 2:00 PM this past draft. I’ll expect the same this year, which underlies my primary reason for factoring the Chiefs in for a playoff run.
So that leaves Hazardville. The Kegs are my favorite to win the division. Not without blemishes, but the most balanced team in the division. The Kegs rated only slightly better than Taxachusetts and the Klubbers until I factored in the defense. This is the best defensive team in the league by a country mile. Featuring 1’s at 1B, 2B and 3B and 2e12 at SS is very nice and will be frustrating to their opponents. I wonder if Bob will remove Teixeira with his lame 1e4 for defense late in games in favor of the far superior glove man Kotchman with his 1e1? My guess is that Kotchman and his golden glove will be collecting dust in the minors.
No studs in the starting rotation but very solid 1-5 with old faces Buehrle and Oswalt leading the way. The pen is also unspectacular but solid with a good setup and closer combo of Aardsma and Sanches with lefty killer Rhodes. Some story offensively….unspectacular but solid. Not a lot of power outside of Teixeira, but nice on-base and extra base punch from guys like Pedroia, Scutaro, Rolen and Beltran. One of the more balanced teams in the league. I would be surprised but not shocked if the Kegs don’t win the division.
This should be a fun division….no awful teams, no powerhouses…..should make for a lot of close games. Have fun boys.
Next up: AL West
....click here to see the projected NLW standings and team details
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Welcome to the 2010 season….seemed like it would never come!
This year, I’ve gone into more depth with my analysis than ever before…. So I think my projections should be pretty damn good. You’ve probably spent many a sleepless night wondering how I do it…how I can predict the future with such soothsayer like accuracy….no?….well anyhow…. essentially I average out hitting, pitching and fielding numbers and come up with a total team ranking. I then use a little judgment. I call that the Klee rule. That’s how I come up with my projections. I’ve added a little tid bit this year’s presentation ranking each team by hitting, pitching, fielding and overall 1 to 24. These are all based an averages…so freaky good or bad cards can affect it substantially. Depending on how you look at it, a freak card may not have the same results on W’s and L’s as it does on the team average numbers….however this is what I’ve used to do my projections for years…and I for one will say that numbers generally don’t lie.
Something to make note of…is while I do this analysis every year, I spend a lot more time on it in years my team is competitive…. henceforth I tend to have more accurate projections in years my team is good. Last year my team was bad so I didn’t spend as much time on it.... too painful ..... though I still did predict 8 or 10 playoff spots last year. In the AL I missed on California (hard to predict someone trading his team away during the season)….Maine replaced him in the playoffs. In the NL I missed on Connecticut (drinking the kool-aid from his nice 2008 run)…and Allyn St made the playoffs instead.
This year my team looks pretty good….SO PAY ATTENTION! Again, I warn all about ignoring my projections and trying to make the playoffs when I say you have no chance. Don't do it!! LOL.
Anyhow, hope you enjoy this year’s efforts. My staff put a lot of work into it. Hopefully I don't offend anyone too bad. Remember, just one man's opinion....and a man who's opinion is widely considered marginal at best....
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AL EAST
As is my tradition, I start with the most lame division first…. the one that projects to be the least competitive ..... Drum roll .... that would be the AL East which to put it simply... STINKS!
Salem and Lake Wobegon will come in one-two. End of story. Oh, you want to hear more? OK…. if I must.
Let’s start at the bottom. Illinois and Urpaine are both in rough shape. Both are bad this year and I don’t see either digging out of it for a couple of more years.
Urpaigne: I really don’t see too many guys on the roster I’d want on my team. Iwamura might have a good card or two left in him and Cruz looks like a decent player…but after that you have a bunch of mediocre to crappy middle infielders…and the only thing young about the team is Delwyn, Cris and Delmon. The pitching isn’t much better. I think Feldman and Wells probably had career years. Jonathan Sanchez is the best of the lot and not sure he’ll ever be better than a #3 Strat starter. As a guy who trades useful relievers when my team is bad, I don’t see the value in taking Aceves in the draft. So you win 65 games instead of 60, Aceves stinks for the Yanks this year and you cut him next year.
Good news is Urpaigne only rated #20…there are four worse teams!
Illinois is a is even worse off. Guys like Cody Ross, Barton, Raja Davis, Hart and Teahen might provide about what they did this year…or even a bit more in the future. Certainly no impact players in that lot though. I don’t see much hope in the rotation…. nobody even as good as Wells or Feldman. Mediocre lefties like Saunders and Davis get crushed in the FBN. The pitching needs a total over-haul.
Good news again is they are only rated #23….there is someone worse! We’ll I guess that’s not really good news…but I’m a glass half full kind a guy.
Baton Rouge and Maine represent the next tier…. still with no shot at the playoffs in 2010, but much more likely to contend in the next couple of years.
Maine still has A-Rod and D-Lee but the rest of the offense is a bit suspect. Soto tanking really hurt. If Soto comes back next year the offense should be better . Guys like Phillips, Gutierrez and LaRoche are never going to be elite sluggers but could be solid complimentary players. This killer this year is the step back that the rotation took. Wakefield falling back to more expected results and theVolquez injury where the big blows. The pen still has a few useful arms left like Affelt and Frasor….that I would expect to see on other teams before too long. Madson is probably the keeper of the group.
All things being equal, which of course they rarely are … take the better pitching. Baton Rouge and Maine rate out pretty close….Baton Rouge with the better pitching, Maine with the better hitting. Baton Rouge should take third based on the better pitching. Hansen, Jurrjens, Volstad and Zambrano are not enough this year, but could prove tough down the road. Dito for Bell, Marmol and Breslow in the pen. Offensively there is a decent core with Crawford, Zimmerman, Morneau and Martin. Martin’s down year hurt, but I bet he’ll bounce back next season. Aside from Crawford, the OF continues to be a black hole. They will need more offense there in the future to contend.
Lake Wobegon is interesting. Elite players at certain positions and total bums at others. Haren is a top 5 starter and Wainwright is decent but too lopsided to be a top guy .....but the rest of the starting rotation is crappy. Derek Lowe got Livan Herandez Disease and other guys are just weak. The pen has Adams with practically a blank card, Guerrier with a great card….didn’t see that coming…and Soria with a nice card. Soria looks like one of those rare closers you will be able to count on every year for a good card. Offensively/defensively you have two of the elite players with Utley at 2B and Tulowitzki at SS….very good bats at DH and RF with Matsui and Hawpe….but a disaster in CF and LF. Still…in spite of some deficiencies in the OF, this is an excellent defensive team…all about the infield D. So the Wippets defense and and pitching rate very high because of the great infield D and because of Haren and the pen. Middle of the road offensive team…but pitching and defense wins games…right? I would expect this team to be better next season when Hamilton and Quentin rebound, but for this season they are good enough to cruise into the playoffs….then if Jim can lower himself to the level of snakes like myself, play a little Strat-ball and overuse the bullpen in the playoffs he could do some similar damage to what Yorktown did in 2008.
Salem continues to be an elite team and the preseason favorite to return to the World Series again in 2010…. although I think the West will put up a better fight than it did last season. I would say their offense is about the same as last year. Chipper and Vlad are showing their age, but Howard and Mauer both took a step up. It don’t get much better in the OF than Bay, Werth and Ichiro. The only chink is having to play Werth in CF as a 3. Waaaaaa. Salem’s rotation is not as deep as last season with the combination of injuries, retirement and ineffectiveness taking it’s toll. However, nothing like having Carpenter rear his ugly head to make up for a lot of that. Add it the Kuroda-Uehara old import club and Andy Pettite….and shazam….good to go. Nathan and Papalbon continue to be a two headed monster out of the pen. Overall, not the juggernaut that last year’s team was…but damn near close. Number 2 rated team in the league ranking right up near the top in every area. They win this division by at least 10 games. Snnooooozzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
....click here to see the projected standings and team details